Blockchain Adoption and International Trade Performance: Evidence from Panel ARDL Analysis of BRICS Economies: Blockchain Adoption and International Trade Performance

Muhammad Marenah

doi:10.5281/zenodo.19655406

Authors

Muhammad Marenah Istanbul Ticaret University https://orcid.org/0009-0002-0357-2760

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19655406

Keywords:

International Trade, Blockchain Technology, Cointegrating regression, Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag, BRICS

Abstract

This study examines the impact of blockchain adoption on international trade performance in BRICS economies using panel data over the period 2010–2024. Employing the Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (P-ARDL) model, the analysis distinguishes between short-run and long-run dynamics while accounting for cross-country heterogeneity. The results indicate that blockchain adoption has a statistically significant and positive effect on trade performance in the long run, primarily by enhancing transaction efficiency, transparency, and trust in cross-border exchanges. In the short run, however, the effects are mixed, reflecting adjustment costs, technological barriers, and varying levels of digital infrastructure across countries. The findings remain robust after controlling key macroeconomic variables, including GDP, exchange rates, and trade openness. This study aligns with existing empirical evidence on the trade-enhancing role of blockchain in BRICS economies, a topic that has received limited attention. The results suggest that policies promoting digital infrastructure, regulatory clarity, and technological adoption can strengthen trade integration and economic cooperation among BRICS members.

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Blockchain Adoption and International Trade Performance: Evidence from Panel ARDL Analysis of BRICS Economies